The Fukushima Scenario: Estimating the Probability of Core Melt or Damage Following Loss of Total Power and Cooling

We analyze the probability of extensive core damage following loss of offsite power and cooling scenarios, including the past Fukushima-Daiichi events. Because we are interested also in extreme or rare events and “natural” disasters, the analysis is extended to include power recovery data from the recent Superstorm Sandy in the USA, which also caused widespread disruption, flooding and extended power outages. We provide a simple bounding expression for the probability of core damage that not only illustrates the known physics, but also provides relative sensitivity analyses on the key influence of learning.