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Research Papers: Design for Manufacture and the Life Cycle

Managing Conflicting Water Resource Goals and Uncertainties in a Dam Network by Exploring the Solution Space

[+] Author and Article Information
Lin Guo

The Systems Realization Laboratory @ OU,
The University of Oklahoma,
Norman, OK 73019

Hamed Zamanisabzi, Thomas M. Neeson

Department of Geography and
Environmental Sustainability,
The University of Oklahoma,
Norman, OK 73019

Janet K. Allen

John and Mary Moore Chair and Professor
The Systems Realization Laboratory @ OU,
The University of Oklahoma,
Norman, OK 73019
e-mail: janet.allen@ou.edu

Farrokh Mistree

L.A. Comp Chair and Professor
The Systems Realization Laboratory @ OU,
The University of Oklahoma,
Norman, OK 73019

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Design for Manufacturing Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received June 28, 2018; final manuscript received November 20, 2018; published online January 10, 2019. Assoc. Editor: Harrison M. Kim.

J. Mech. Des 141(3), 031702 (Jan 10, 2019) (15 pages) Paper No: MD-18-1500; doi: 10.1115/1.4042211 History: Received June 28, 2018; Revised November 20, 2018

In a multireservoir system, ensuring adequate water availability while managing conflicting goals is critical to making the social–ecological system sustainable in the presence of considerable uncertainty. The priorities of multiple user groups and availability of the water resource vary with time, weather, and other factors. Uncertainties such as variations in precipitation can intensify the discrepancies between water supply and water demand. To reduce such discrepancies, we seek to satisfice conflicting goals, considering typical uncertainties. We observe that models are incomplete and inaccurate, which calls into question using a single point solution and suggests the need for solutions, which are robust to uncertainties. So, we explore satisficing solutions that are relatively insensitive to uncertainties, by incorporating different design preferences, identifying sensitive segments, and improving the design accordingly. In this article, we present an example of the exploration of the solution space to enhance sustainability in multidisciplinary systems, when goals conflict, preferences are evolving, and uncertainties add complexity, which can be applied in mechanical design. In this paper, we focus on the method rather than the results.

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Figures

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Fig. 2

Dams along the red river basin

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Fig. 1

Three steps for the exploration of the solution space

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Fig. 3

The 14-dam network

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Fig. 6

Illustration of the equality constraints for dam (reservoir) d

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Fig. 7

Method for exploration of the solution space

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Fig. 4

A small part of the dam network in the red river basin

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Fig. 5

The pools of a reservoir

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Fig. 12

Satisficing weight area for three goals6

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Fig. 8

Visualization of the eight WSs in the ternary plot

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Fig. 9

Feasible weight area of goal 1—reservoir

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Fig. 10

Feasible weight area of goal 2—people

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Fig. 11

Feasible weight area of goal 3—fish

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Fig. 13

Bring the solution away from the boundary by restricting the RHS

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Fig. 14

Applying the physical boundary by relaxing RHS and then bring the solution away from the physical boundary by restricting RHS

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Fig. 15

The satisficing area of the weights of original model (a) and improved model (b)

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Fig. 16

Improvement through iterating

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