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Research Papers: Design Theory and Methodology

Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance

[+] Author and Article Information
John Meluso

Global Design Laboratory,
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jmeluso@umich.edu

Jesse Austin-Breneman

Global Design Laboratory,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jausbren@umich.edu

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Design Theory and Methodology Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received August 9, 2017; final manuscript received January 30, 2018; published online September 18, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Katja Holtta-Otto.

J. Mech. Des 140(12), 121101 (Sep 18, 2018) (9 pages) Paper No: MD-17-1548; doi: 10.1115/1.4039494 History: Received August 09, 2017; Revised January 30, 2018

Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.

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Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

The information flowchart for the agent-based model. Arrows indicate the direction and content of information exchanged between the agents during each design cycle.

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Graphs showing the mass estimates for each agent and their respective utilities. Note the differences in the number of estimates and the skew of the utility functions for the subsystems and system.

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Each agent's uncertainty as a function of number of design cycles. Subsystem 2 does not converge to the prescribed uncertainty threshold due to bias.

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

Histograms of the 1000 trials for each of the unbiased and biased cases, respectively

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

Plots of the mean and variance for the system performance δξ as a function of the subsystem skew parameter αi and system skew parameter αξ

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