Gaming the System:An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategiesand their Effects on System Performance

[+] Author and Article Information
John Meluso

PhD Student, Global Design Laboratory, Design Science Program, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109

Jesse Austin-Breneman

Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Global Design Laboratory, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109

1Corresponding author.

ASME doi:10.1115/1.4039494 History: Received August 09, 2017; Revised January 30, 2018


Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems affect system evolution yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers ``game the system'' by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' ``gaming'' strategy.

Copyright (c) 2018 by ASME
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.






Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In