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Research Papers: Design Automation

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis Through Response Surface Method

[+] Author and Article Information
Dequan Zhang

State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and
Manufacturing for Vehicle Body,
College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,
Hunan University,
Changsha 410082, China;
School of Aerospace, Mechanical and
Mechatronic Engineering,
The University of Sydney,
Sydney 2006, New South Wales, Australia
e-mail: zhangdq@hnu.edu.cn

Xu Han

Professor
State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and
Manufacturing for Vehicle Body,
College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,
Hunan University,
Changsha 410082, China
e-mail: hanxu@hnu.edu.cn

Chao Jiang

State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and
Manufacturing for Vehicle Body,
College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,
Hunan University,
Changsha 410082, China
e-mail: jiangc@hnu.edu.cn

Jie Liu

State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and
Manufacturing for Vehicle Body,
College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,
Hunan University,
Changsha 410082, China
e-mail: liujie@hnu.edu.cn

Qing Li

School of Aerospace, Mechanical and
Mechatronic Engineering,
The University of Sydney,
Sydney 2006, New South Wales, Australia
e-mail: qing.li@sydney.edu.au

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Design Automation Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received August 2, 2016; final manuscript received January 18, 2017; published online February 24, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Xiaoping Du.

J. Mech. Des 139(4), 041404 (Feb 24, 2017) (12 pages) Paper No: MD-16-1547; doi: 10.1115/1.4035860 History: Received August 02, 2016; Revised January 18, 2017

In time-dependent reliability analysis, the first-passage method has been extensively used to evaluate structural reliability under time-variant service circumstances. To avoid computing the outcrossing rate in this method, surrogate modeling may provide an effective alternative for calculating the time-dependent reliability indices in structural analysis. A novel approach, namely time-dependent reliability analysis with response surface (TRARS), is thus introduced in this paper to estimate the time-dependent reliability for nondeterministic structures under stochastic loads. A Gaussian stochastic process is generated by using the expansion optimal linear estimation (EOLE) method which has proven to be more accurate and efficient than some series expansion discretization techniques. The random variables and maximum responses of uncertain structures are treated as the input and output parameters, respectively. Through introducing the response surface (RS) model, a novel iterative procedure is proposed in this study. A Bucher strategy is adopted to generate the initial sample points, and a gradient projection technique is used to generate new sampling points for updating the RS model in each iteration. The time-dependent reliability indices and probabilities of failure are thus obtained efficiently using the first-order reliability method (FORM) over a certain design lifetime. In this study, four demonstrative examples are provided for illustrating the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Probability of failure and reliability indices for the mechanical part versus time: (a) probability of failure and (b) reliability indices

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Fig. 2

The corroded beam for withstanding constant and stochastic loads [7,10]

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Fig. 3

The probability of failure and reliability indices for the corroded beam structure versus time: (a) probability of failure and (b) reliability indices

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Fig. 4

The schematic of planar 25 bar truss structure [45]

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Fig. 5

The probability of failure and reliability indices for the 25 bar truss structure: (a) probability of failure and (b) reliability indices

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Fig. 6

The design model and the section of impeller

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Fig. 7

The FE model for the impeller

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Fig. 8

Annual probabilities of failure and reliability indices for the impeller versus time: (a) probability of failure and (b) reliability indices

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