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Research Papers

A Comparative Study of Evidence Theories in the Modeling, Analysis, and Design of Engineering Systems

[+] Author and Article Information
K. K. Annamdas

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering,
University of Miami,
Coral Gables, FL 33146

Contributed by the Design Automation Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received June 4, 2012; final manuscript received March 28, 2013; published online May 9, 2013. Assoc. Editor: Zissimos P. Mourelatos.

J. Mech. Des 135(6), 061006 (May 09, 2013) (10 pages) Paper No: MD-12-1297; doi: 10.1115/1.4024229 History: Received June 04, 2012; Revised March 28, 2013

The application of different types of evidence theories in the modeling, analysis and design of engineering systems is explored. In most studies dealing with evidence theory, the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) has been used as the framework not only for the characterization and representation of uncertainty but also for combining evidence. The versatility of the theory is the motivation for selecting DST to represent and combine different types of evidence obtained from multiple sources. In this work, five evidence combination rules, namely, Dempster–Shafer, Yager, Inagaki, Zhang, and Murrphy combination rules, are considered. The limitations and sensitivity of the DST rule in the case of conflicting evidence are illustrated with examples. The application of all the five evidence combination rules for the modeling, analysis and design of engineering systems is illustrated using a power plant failure example and a welded beam problem. The aim is to understand the basic characteristics of each rule and develop preliminary guidelines or criteria for selecting an evidence combination rule that is most appropriate based on the nature and characteristics of the available evidence. Since this work is the first one aimed at developing the guidelines or criteria for selecting the most suitable evidence combination rule, further studies are required to refine the guidelines and criteria developed in this work.

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References

Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Belief (Bel) and Plausibility (Pl) of a proposition A

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Inagaki's unified rule of combination with different values of the parameter k

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