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Research Papers: Design Theory and Methodology

A Decision-Analytic System Concept Selection for a Public Project

[+] Author and Article Information
Shun Takai1

Department of Interdisciplinary Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409-021takais@mst.eduDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4022takais@mst.edu

Kosuke Ishii

Department of Interdisciplinary Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409-021ishii@stanford.eduDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4022ishii@stanford.edu

1

Corresponding author.

J. Mech. Des 130(11), 111101 (Sep 25, 2008) (10 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2976455 History: Received October 08, 2007; Revised June 18, 2008; Published September 25, 2008

This paper presents a decision-analytic system concept selection for a public project. In the proposed approach, the decision-maker (engineer) chooses a system concept and requests a budget for building the system. The unique customer (government) decides whether to approve the project but also has the option to cancel the project if the cost of the project exceeds the budget. Thus, at the time of system concept selection, the cost of the system, the government’s criterion to approve the project, and its criterion to continue/cancel the project when the cost exceeds the budget are modeled as uncertainties. To model the uncertainty of project continuation, the engineer assumes that the government’s criterion to continue/cancel the project is a linear combination of its initial criterion to approve the project and the budget. By analyzing the government’s option to cancel the project, the engineer can optimize his or her choice of a system concept (technology and target system requirements) and budget.

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Copyright © 2008 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figures

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Figure 1

Top-down system concept selection framework

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Figure 2

Influence diagram for a public project

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Figure 3

Decision tree for a public project

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Figure 4

Schematic of the new linear collider

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Figure 6

Probability of approval for θ6, Pr{v(θ6)≥b6}

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Figure 7

Probability of cost satisfying the budget for θ6, Pr{c(θ6)≤b6}

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Figure 8

Pr{vup(θ,b)≥c(θ)∣v(θ)≥b,r} for b=$3B and r=0, 0.5, 1

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Figure 9

Decision tree with r∼uniform [0,1]

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Figure 10

Decision tree with discretized probabilities of r

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Figure 11

Expected utility of project proposal {θ,b}

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Figure 12

Expected utility of project proposal when r=0

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Figure 13

Decision-analytic concept selection models

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Figure 14

Pr{vup(θ,b)≥c(θ)∣v(θ)≥b,r} for b=$3B and r=0

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