Comparison of Probability and Possibility for Design Against Catastrophic Failure Under Uncertainty

[+] Author and Article Information
Efstratios Nikolaidis

Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Department, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606

Sophie Chen

Aerospace and Ocean Engineering Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061

Harley Cudney

Applied Research Associates Inc., 415 Waterman Road, South Royalton, VT 05068

Raphael T. Haftka, Raluca Rosca

Department of Aerospace Engineering, Mechanics and Engineering Science, The University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-6250

J. Mech. Des 126(3), 386-394 (Sep 01, 2003) (9 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1701878 History: Received December 01, 2000; Revised September 01, 2003
Copyright © 2004 by ASME
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Grahic Jump Location
Probability density of X, for the statement “X is between 8 and 12” and possibility distribution of X
Grahic Jump Location
Comparison of possibility distribution function and probability density function
Grahic Jump Location
The probabilistic model with the inflated range of frequencies underestimates the probability of failure
Grahic Jump Location
Exemplification of the differences in design philosophies of possibility and probability theory
Grahic Jump Location
Comparison of ten probabilistic designs (black) and ten possibility-based designs (gray). Models of uncertainties were constructed from three samples.



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